TMT Rebar Price Forecast Report 2024-2025 | Price Trend, Latest Prices, Market Analysis, News, Chart, Demand, Extensive Forecast, Historical and Forecast Data

TMT Rebar Price Forecast

TMT (Thermo mechanically treated) rebar prices are expected to vary regionally in the coming months. The Indian market is expected to stabilize in the short term and then climb back in the long term. The construction industry in the country is performing relatively better than other global markets. The global market analysis predicts a meek performance in major TMT Rebar markets. Conclusively, the Indian rebar market appears to be a bright spot for TMT Rebar in the long term, while other markets are likely to remain consolidated.

Market Dynamics

Recently, TMT Rebar prices have decreased across major global markets, particularly influenced by challenging conditions in the Chinese steel market and weak demand overall. The Indian market, on the other hand, is being driven by the vibrant domestic construction sector.

In the European market, rebar prices have shown minor fluctuations, with Northern Europe prices remaining stable and Italy experiencing a slight decrease followed by a recovery. The EU market is marked by negative sentiment, slowed activity post-Easter, and weak demand, impacting construction projects. Some Italian companies have even paused production temporarily, but this has not yet affected supply levels. In North America, rebar prices have similarly dropped, reflecting weak imports, stabilized scrap prices, and a general wait-and-see approach among market participants. Prices have stabilized but with little expectation of significant rises in the near term. In China, rebar prices continue to drop as negative market dynamics persist. Despite some construction activity picking up after the announcement of state stimulus, the oversupply continues as steel mills maintain production levels. Future government stimulus policies might eventually boost steel consumption, but immediate corrections in prices are not anticipated.

Annual Outlook for TMT Rebar Industry

The annual outlook looks highly mixed for TMT Rebars. With some regional variations, the global demand trajectory appears stagnated for 2024. In contrast to the global slowdown, the Indian TMT Rebar industry observed growing demands in Q1’24. Current analysis suggests that infrastructure development and expected post-election investments in India will keep the demand curve inclined in the coming months as well. Despite some speculations, the fiscal stimulus by the Chinese government is also seemingly helping the Chinese industries. However, globally further slowdown is anticipated in the TMT Rebar sector. Feedstock iron ore prices are projected to fall ~10% Y-O-Y in 2024 as they reached a 6-month low in March globally due to oversupply. With this downfall globally, Indian state-owned iron ore miner NMDC has reduced the prices of lump ore and fines as of 21 March 2024.  Looking at low prices and firm consumption, steel imports are expected to further increase by around 14% in India in 2024, which will keep domestic rebar prices range-bound. Ongoing weak market conditions in China have led some buyers to delay purchases in anticipation of further price decreases. This accumulation of unmet demand could eventually stimulate a temporary market recovery later in 2024.

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