Global Oil Refining Market Size and Share Outlook - Forecast Trends and Growth Analysis Report (2025-2034)

Oil Refining Market Growth

Oil refining is the essential process for transforming crude oil into products such as lubricants, fuels, and kerosene. The oil refining process involves various steps including coking, distillation, reforming, cracking, posttreatment, and refining. In this process, crude oil is separated into different components on the basis of their chemical properties, molecular structure, and boiling points.

The growing aviation industry has increased the demand for fuels, this in turn is anticipated to boost the growth of the oil refining market around the globe. Reducing costs of flights coupled with rising disposable income is surging the frequency of flights, increasing the demand for oil refining to provide adequate fuel.

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Oil Refining Market Trends

Increasing population is a key trend in oil refining market as it has propelled the demand for fuels and kerosene, among other products, in applications such as residential and commercial as well as agriculture.

Rising awareness regarding the non-renewable nature of oil and the limited supplies left for usage are increasing the importance of adequate oil refining so that maximum oil usage is possible, which is providing impetus to the market for oil refining.

Recent Developments

As per the oil refining market dynamics and trends, Bharat Petroleum Corp, based in India, announced on August 2024 that it aims to integrate refining and petrochemical capacities in the country in the next 5 to 7 years, which can meet the growing energy demand.

Industry Outlook

In 2023, the United States led in crude oil production with a substantial output of 820 million metric tons, positioning it as the world's largest producer at the time. As per the oil refining industry analysis, Saudi Arabia followed with 542 million metric tons, and Russia ranked third with 535 million metric tons, indicating their significant influence in global oil markets. Canada produced 289 million metric tons, establishing itself as a key player in North America, while Iraq and China contributed 212 million metric tons and 209 million metric tons, respectively, reflecting their importance in the Middle Eastern and Asian markets. 

The United Arab Emirates, with 192 million metric tons, remained a major producer in the Gulf region, while Iran and Brazil each produced 178 million metric tons, underscoring their roles in the Middle Eastern and South American oil sectors. Kuwait contributed 138 million metric tons, which, although smaller, still marked a significant output in the global context and boosted the growth of the oil refining industry. Mexico and Norway produced 98 million metric tons and 96 million metric tons, respectively, highlighting their roles as key contributors in the oil production landscape despite their comparatively smaller outputs.

Global airline industry revenues fell sharply from USD 838 billion in 2019 to USD 384 billion in 2020, reflecting a 54.1% year-over-year decline, according to the International Air Transport Association (IATA). The industry began to recover in 2021 with revenues increasing to USD 513 billion, marking a 33.4% growth. By 2022, revenues reached USD 738 billion, showing a significant 44.1% increase. Projections for 2024 indicate continued growth, with revenues expected to reach USD 996 billion, representing a 9.7% rise in 2024 compared to 2023. Passenger revenue dropped drastically from USD 607 billion in 2019 to USD 189 billion in 2020 but recovered to USD 242 billion in 2021, which increased the oil refining industry revenue. By 2022, passenger revenue surged to USD 437 billion. The forecast for 2024 estimates passenger revenue at USD 744 billion, showing robust growth. Cargo revenue increased from USD 100.8 billion in 2019 to USD 140.4 billion in 2020 and peaked at USD 210 billion in 2021. However, it slightly decreased to USD 206.5 billion in 2022. Projections for 2024 forecast a decline in cargo revenue to USD 119.8 billion. These trends from the International Air Transport Association (IATA) indicate a strong recovery in passenger travel driving overall revenue growth, despite a projected decline in cargo revenue.

Rising Demand of Petroleum Products and Technological Advancements in Refining Processes is Fuelling the Growth of Global Oil Refining Market

• Rising global demand for refined petroleum products driven by industrial growth and transportation needs.
• Technological advancements in refining processes enhancing efficiency and reducing environmental impact.
• Expansion of refining capacity in emerging markets to meet increasing local demand and export opportunities can aid oil refining demand growth.
• Strong presence of multinational oil companies with advanced refining technologies and extensive distribution networks.
• Increasing investment in upgrading existing refineries to produce cleaner fuels in compliance with stricter environmental regulations.

High Capital Investment and Fluctuating Crude Oil Prices May Challenge the Growth of the Global Oil Refining Market

• High capital expenditure required for building and maintaining refining infrastructure.
• Fluctuating crude oil prices affecting the profitability and stability of refining operations.
• Dependence on advanced technology and skilled workforce for efficient and safe refinery operations.
• Environmental regulations and compliance costs impacting the operational flexibility and profitability of refineries can influence oil refining demand forecast.
• Competition from alternative energy sources and renewable energy impacting the long-term demand for refined petroleum products.
• Economic uncertainties influencing investment decisions and demand in the oil refining sector.

Expansion of Petrochemical Industries and Increasing Demand of Refined Oil is Shaping the Future of Global Oil Refining Market

• Increasing demand for low-sulphur fuels driven by global initiatives to reduce air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions.
• Expansion of petrochemical industries creating additional demand for refined oil products as feedstock.
• Growing focus on biofuels and renewable diesel production presenting diversification opportunities for refineries.
• Development of advanced refining technologies such as hydrocracking and catalytic cracking enhancing product yield and quality can boost the demand of oil refining market.
• Rising demand for refined products in the aviation and marine sectors driven by increasing global trade and travel.
• Potential for strategic partnerships with technology providers to enhance refinery efficiency and output.
• Exploring untapped markets in Africa and Southeast Asia with growing energy needs and infrastructure development.

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Oil Refining Industry Segmentation

On the basis of complexity, the market is divided into topping, hydro-skimming, conversion, and deep conversion. Based on product, the market is segregated into light distillates, middle distillates, and fuel oil, among others. By fuel type, the market is classified into gasoline, gasoil, kerosene, and LPG, among others. On the basis of application, the market is segmented into transportation, aviation, marine bunker, petrochemical, agriculture, electricity, residential and commercial, and rail and domestic waterways, among others. Based on region, the oil refining market is categorised into North America, Europe, the Asia Pacific, Latin America, and the Middle East and Africa.

Oil Refining Market Share by Product

Middle distillates are anticipated to witness significant growth in the oil refining market share over the forecast period. This growth can be attributed to the growing demand for middle distillate products around the globe from various industries including aviation, transportation, and power generation, among others. Middle distillates support the delivery of flammable liquids with shorter carbon chains and are used to produce components such as kerosene, jet fuel, and gas oil/diesel. With advancements in technology, there has been an increase in the average yield of middle distillates.

Competitive Landscape

China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec Corp.) is an international energy company that was founded in 2000 and is headquartered in Beijing, China. They are devoted towards producing efficient and clean energy.

Abu Dhabi National Oil Company is one of the world's leading energy producers operating across the entirety of the hydrocarbon chain. The company was established in 1971 and is based in Abu Dhabi in the United Arab Emirates.

Valero Energy Corporation is an international marketer and manufacturer of petrochemical products and transportation fuels in the oil refining industry. Founded in 1980 and headquartered in Texas, United States, the company provides high quality products and fuels essential to modern life.

Other market players include National Iranian Oil Refining & Distribution Company, Saudi Aramco Mobil Refinery Company, Exxon Mobil Corporation, Chevron Corporation, Reliance Industries Limited, Marathon Petroleum Corporation, and S-Oil Corporation, among others.

Oil Refining Market Regional Analysis

Regionally, the Asia Pacific accounts for a significant share of the oil refining industry due to the presence of significant oil refining capacities in the region, particularly in countries such as China and India. Apart from these nations, other countries in Southeast Asia are investing in oil refinery projects so as to be able to reduce import dependency. Capacity expansions for oil refining are anticipated to increase the Asia Pacific market share of oil refining further in the coming years.

Key Price Indicators in the Global Oil Refining Market

• Impact of Refining Margins: The profitability of refining operations significantly influences the prices of refined products as well as oil refining market value.
• Transportation and Logistics Costs: Transportation and logistics expenses contribute to the overall cost structure and affect the final prices of refined products.
• Compliance with Environmental Regulations: Costs related to adhering to environmental regulations and producing cleaner fuels impact the overall prices of refined products.

Key Demand Indicators in the Global Oil Refining Market

• Increasing Global Industrial Activity: Rising industrial activity worldwide drives up the demand for various refined petroleum products.
• Growth in the Transportation Sector: Expanding transportation needs, especially in emerging economies, are boosting fuel consumption significantly.
• Expansion of the Petrochemical Industry: The growing petrochemical industry requires refined oil products as essential raw materials, increasing oil refining demand.
• Seasonal and Economic Influences: Seasonal changes and economic cycles impact the demand for heating oil, gasoline, and other refined products.
• Government Policies Promoting Cleaner Fuels: Regulatory initiatives encouraging cleaner fuel usage are shaping consumption patterns in the refined products market.