Global Fresh Milk Market Growth Analysis - Forecast Trends, Market Size, Share and Outlook (2024-2032)

Global Fresh Milk Market Outlook

The fresh milk market is aided by the growing milk production globally. The global output in 2023 stood at over 890.85 million tonnes, rising by 2.1% from 2018. Production is expected to grow further in the forecast period of 2024-2032, to reach approximately 1073.90 million tonnes in 2032.

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In the coming decade, the milk production is expected to witness an average annual increase of 1.8%. Majority of the milk and dairy products are consumed as fresh dairy products accounting for almost 50% of the total global production.

In the forecast period, Asia will account for 70% of the increase in the global production due to expanding population and increasing disposable incomes. Milk production in emerging economies is expected to rise annually by 3%, with the majority consumed as fresh and dairy products. Pakistan and India account for most of the projected increase in the global milk production in the forecast period. These two countries are expected to contribute more than one-quarter of the total global production in 2027. Most of the surplus production in these two countries is expected to be consumed as fresh milk and dairy products. In India, over 65% of the total production is consumed as fresh milk.

Europe and North America will be the other major milk producing regions in the forecast period. The growth in milk production is expected to be slow in the forecast period at less than 1% annually. Even though the herd size has been declining, the milk yields have been growing in these regions. The yield in the European Union is projected to grow by 1.2% per annum in the next five years. While the market share of European Union countries in terms of production is similar to that of India, India is expected to surpass the European Union in the coming years in terms of its total output.

Market Segmentation

Fresh milk can either be fresh whole/full-fat, low-fat, skim, modified, ultra-filtration, lactose reduced or lactose-free food, flavoured, and fortified.  It contains multiple essential nutrients required for daily human consumption.

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The market in this EMR report is bifurcated into:

• Whole/Full-Fat
• Reduced-Fat (2%)
• Low-Fat (1%)
• Fat-Free

The report analyses the fresh milk market in North America, Latin America, Middle East and Africa, Europe, and Asia Pacific regions.

Market Analysis

The fresh milk market is being driven by the continuous expansion in the exports of fluid milk, which saw a 4% increase in 2017 after witnessing a robust growth of 16% in 2016. With rising health awareness among the consumers globally, its demand has been witnessing a growth in recent years. Retailers are coming up with innovative packaging solutions aimed at increasing the shelf life, which will, in turn, boost the sales in the forecast period. With a rising number of dairies transitioning into organic milk production, the fresh milk market is projected to grow further. In the US, organic milk accounted for 18% of the total sales. Currently, flavoured milk is the leading segment in the fresh milk market.

The fresh milk market has received impetus for its growth in the European Union due to the specialisation and restructuring of its production industry since the scrapping of the milk quotas in 2016. In the Americas, the rising population and growing milk production are aiding the growth of the market. Milk production in Latin America and the Caribbean region is projected to grow by 18% by 2027, although its market share in the global market is expected to remain stable. China, a major importer of dairy products, will increase its domestic production of milk in the coming years by 1.5% per annum. However, its contribution to the global milk production is expected to remain the same, as most of its production will be consumed domestically as fresh milk and dairy products. In developing countries, where the milk production is expected to grow faster than in developed countries, 85% of this increased production will be used in the production of fresh milk and dairy products. Globally, the consumption of fresh dairy is thus expected to grow faster than processed dairy products, growing annually by 2.1% in the forecast period.

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Competitive Landscape

The report gives a detailed analysis of the following key players in the global fresh milk market, looking into their capacity, market share, and latest developments like mergers and acquisitions, capacity additions, and plant turnarounds:

• Nestle SA
• China Mengniu Dairy Company Limited
• Arla Foods Group
• Cooperativa Central Dos Produtores Rurais De Minas Gerais Ltda. (Itambe)
• Gujarat Cooperative Milk Marketing Federation Ltd. (Amul)
• DMK Deutsches Milchkontor GmbH
• Dairy Farmers of America, Inc.

The EMR report gives an in-depth insight into the market by providing a SWOT analysis as well as an analysis of Porter’s Five Forces.

Key Highlights of the Report