Tomato Paste Price Forecast Report 2024-2025 | Price Trend, Latest Prices, Market Analysis, News, Chart, Demand, Extensive Forecast, Historical and Forecast Data

Tomato Paste Price Forecast

Price forecasts for tomato paste appear to be downward facing for the coming months of 2024. The tomato paste marketing year that goes from December to November usually observes the highest amount of trade exchange in the last few months of the said period; thereby, the prices often peak during the year-ending months. With this, tomato paste prices are projected to waver low temporarily in the near future. However, corrections are expected at the end of the MY 2024. California's tomato processors reported they have, or will have, contracts for 11.6 million short tons (10.5 million metric tonnes) in 2024, which is a decrease of 10% compared to last year. This will further confine the price spectrum for tomato paste in the current marketing year.

Market Dynamics

In recent times, the tomato paste trade has seen bullish trends in the global markets. In the previous marketing year, the tomato paste trade hit the highest for any 12-month period on record. The top ten exporters of tomato paste, which include China, Italy, Spain, the USA, Portugal, Chile, Turkey, Greece, and Iran, shipped higher amounts of tomato paste during this time.  As of May 2024, the southern hemisphere tomato harvests have almost wrapped up, while planting is gaining momentum in the northern hemisphere. However, Western Europe is facing delays due to rain. The global forecast is at approximately 47.5 million tonnes, subject to revision at the WPTC (World Processing Tomato Congress) in Budapest this June. Currently, the tomato planting in California for the 2024 season is almost finished, with only minor delays caused by weather. One major change this season is the new regulation prohibiting the use of neonicotinoids on flowering plants, impacting the treatment of processing tomatoes. The resurgence of the branched broomrape weed, a parasitic plant that can severely affect crops, is also a cause of concern for California farmers.

Annual Outlook for Tomato Paste Industry

The annual outlook for tomato paste looks largely moderate for the year 2024. Globally, a surge in exports was particularly pronounced in China, Iran, and the USA, with the top ten exporting countries overall seeing a 5.3% increase in activity over the same period from the last three years. These ten countries make up around 95 % of the global tomato paste export market. Cultivation and harvests of tomato influence the tomato paste markets immensely. Tomato planting and production across various regions are marked by diverse climatic and operational challenges. France faces delays due to unstable weather, affecting 50% of plantings, while Greece's warm spring has enabled 80-85% of early plantings with a harvest forecast of 500,000 tonnes. Italy and Portugal also report planting delays due to rain and unstable weather, respectively.

In the Northern Hemisphere, California, Canada, and Japan are nearing planting completion with set prices and significant contracted volumes. In the Southern Hemisphere, Argentina records a high production, Australia faces reduced outputs due to weather, Brazil anticipates better yields after a challenging year, Peru plans to process up to 150,000 tonnes, and South Africa remains on schedule with its harvest. Overall, production and processing volumes appear firm for the current MY. However, with the freight and logistical disruptions faced in recent times, traders are levitating towards near-shoring trade practices. These events can impact the trade relationships and dependencies in the current year.

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