TMT Bar Price Forecast Report 2024-2025 | Price Trend, Latest Prices, Market Analysis, News, Chart, Demand, Extensive Forecast, Historical and Forecast Data

TMT Bar Price Forecast

In 2024, the price forecast for TMT bars in China is likely to be influenced by a combination of market factors, such as production restrictions and the current weak demand from the real estate and infrastructure sectors. The China Iron and Steel Industry Association reported that steel bar prices have experienced irrational sharp declines, intensified by reduced spending from indebted local governments, resulting in delayed or halted infrastructure projects in twelve cities and provinces. This has led to a 14.2% drop in steel rebar prices since the start of the year. To counteract this pricing outlook, major steel bar producers have urged authorities to implement measures to restrict steel bar output to support prices. Given these factors, TMT bar prices in 2024 may see stabilization or modest increases if production restrictions are effectively implemented and demand improves.

Market Dynamics

The domestic demand for Thermo-Mechanically Treated (TMT) bars in India is set for significant growth, driven by government initiatives focused on enhancing quality and sustainable infrastructure. The Tata Steel executive noted strong demand from the construction, housing, and infrastructure sectors, supported by consistent government policies and high investor sentiments. In FY23, India consumed 50.3 million tonnes of TMT bars, up from 46 MT in the previous fiscal, with domestic production increasing from 47.2 MT in FY22 to 51 MT in FY23, suggesting a favorable outlook for the TMT bar prices in the upcoming months. The market participants also noted the construction industry's shift towards TMT bars for their superior strength, durability, and earthquake-resistant properties, making them the preferred material for engineers and builders over the other domestic and overseas alternatives.

Annual Outlook for the TMT Bar Industry

The outlook for Thermo-Mechanically Treated (TMT) bars in 2024 remains positive, driven by sustained growth in the global manufacturing sector and rising crude steel production, particularly in India. The JP Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI stood at 50.3 in April 2024, indicating continued expansion in global manufacturing despite a slight dip from March. Notably, production increases were observed in major economies such as China, the USA, India, and Brazil, although Europe lagged with several countries experiencing contractions. This global manufacturing growth, particularly in industrial powerhouses, supports the escalating demand for TMT bars.

In the steel industry, world crude steel production reached 469.060 million tonnes (mt) in Q1 2024, a 0.5% year-on-year (yoy) increase. However, China, the leading producer, saw a slight decline in output but still accounted for 54.7% of global production. India, the second-largest producer, reported a significant 9.7% yoy growth, producing 32.327 mt and contributing 8% to the global total. This rise in crude steel production in India, alongside robust domestic manufacturing activities, is expected to drive the demand for TMT bars, which are crucial for construction and infrastructure projects. Additionally, the positive trends in manufacturing and steel production in key regions, coupled with government initiatives to enhance infrastructure quality and sustainability, suggest a growing demand for TMT bars throughout 2024.

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