Tin Price Forecast Report 2024-2025 | Price Trend, Latest Prices, Market Analysis, News, Chart, Demand, Extensive Forecast, Historical and Forecast Data

Tin Price Forecast

Tin prices surged to near two-year highs in April due to escalating supply threats from disruptions in major producing nations like Myanmar, Indonesia, and the Democratic Republic of Congo. Market players anticipate further price increases, with tin gaining 31% this year, outperforming base metals as a hedge against inflation. Uncertainties loom over resuming Myanmar's mining operations and Indonesia's potential domestic reservation after early-year export delays.

Market Dynamics

The tin market is experiencing a significant surge, with prices nearing two-year highs, driven by dwindling exchange inventories and escalating supply threats. Disruptions in major producing regions like Indonesia, Myanmar, and the Democratic Republic of Congo, particularly the violence in North Kivu affecting the Bisie mine, are tightening supply. Despite resumed exports from Indonesia, the Western market remains strained, with LME stocks down 46% this year. Demand recovery in the electronics sector, evidenced by rising semiconductor sales, is further fuelling the tin prices.

In 2024, base metals are expected to see subdued performance due to weak demand, with high interest rates, manufacturing recessions in Western economies, and slow Chinese growth dampening any bullish supply pressures. Tin's market is anticipated to register a marginal 1,000-ton supply deficit with limited price movement, as of the latest London Metal Exchange (LME) settlement. The spectrum of forecasts reflects uncertainty in tin prices, influenced by supply and demand balances.

Annual Outlook for Tin Industry

The tin market is expected to experience notable gains in 2024, driven by a combination of supply constraints, a weaker dollar, and positive sentiment. Despite weak global growth and a decelerating Chinese economy potentially capping price increases, tin is anticipated to be one of the biggest gainers among industrial metals. BMI projects significant volatility in metal prices, although less extreme than in 2022 and 2023.

The World Bank also expects base metal prices, including tin, to decline due to subdued economic activity in major economies and improved supply, predicting a 5% price drop in 2024. However, the anticipated decline in the dollar's strength and rising demand from the green energy transition are likely to support tin prices. Additionally, potential stimulus from the Chinese government to develop the property sector could further boost prices. BMI sees some upside risks from positive investor sentiment and a potential turnaround in the Chinese property market, which could add further support to tin prices.

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Historical Price Data and Analysis:

• In-depth review of prices (including feedstock) over the past 5 years.

• Visualizations and trend analysis to identify historical patterns and seasonality.

Supply and Demand Analysis:

• Detailed analysis of current supply and demand factors shaping the market, along with projections for how these dynamics are expected to evolve during the forecast period.

• Insights from our extensive supplier and trader network, government websites, industry bodies, and global trade data.

Latest Industry News:

• Up-to-date information on recent developments and geopolitical events.

• Analysis of how these events are likely to impact future prices.

Key Macroeconomic Indicators:

• Evaluation of economic indicators such as GDP growth, inflation rates, and PMI.

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Price Outlook:

• Forecasted price trends for the next 2 years using statistical modelling and fundamental & technical analysis.

• Scenario analysis and potential price fluctuations.

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