Rice (Long Grain) Price Forecast Report 2024-2025 | Price Trend, Latest Prices, Market Analysis, News, Chart, Demand, Extensive Forecast, Historical and Forecast Data

Rice (Long Grain) Price Forecast

Global rice prices are expected to remain high in 2024 due to unfavourable weather conditions and India's ongoing export restrictions, which have intensified supply concerns since 2023. These restrictions, coupled with drought in Thailand and shortages in Malaysia, have driven prices upward. However, supply pressures might ease in 2025 with the expected shift from El Niño to La Niña, bringing increased rainfall and boosting production. In the U.S., long-grain rice prices are projected to rise by approximately 1% quarter-on-quarter due to decreasing ending stocks and higher industrial production of food products.

Market Dynamics

In April 2024, Asian domestic rice prices remained stable but significantly higher than the previous year across most of the subregion, primarily due to high production and transport costs and trade disruptions from India's export ban on non-basmati white rice. In Vietnam, wholesale rice prices were stable as increased exports balanced the influx of the winter-spring crop. India's rice prices remained steady, driven by large-scale government purchases, despite the arrival of the substantial secondary Rabi harvest. In China, wholesale prices of rice varieties were also stable and moderately higher year-on-year due to sufficient market availability from the 2023 crop.

Myanmar saw stabilization in Emata rice prices in April after earlier increases, supported by new harvest supplies but still significantly up year-on-year. Thailand experienced a slight decline in rice prices for the third month, influenced by new secondary harvest arrivals. In Sri Lanka, retail rice prices rose marginally following the end of the main Maha harvest, standing 7% higher year-on-year. In the Philippines, rice prices stabilized in April after steady increases from October 2023 to March 2024 due to improved availability from the secondary harvest and substantial imports despite reduced production from dry weather conditions.

Annual Outlook for Rice (Long Grain) Industry

In 2024/25, the U.S. rice production is projected to increase by 1 percent to 220.2 million hundredweight, the largest since 2020/21, driven by a 30,000-acre increase in harvested area. U.S. rice imports are forecasted to reach a record 44.5 million hundredweight, contributing to a total supply projection of 305.5 million hundredweight. Demand is expected to rise, with total exports projected at 100.0 million hundredweight, a 6 percent increase, and domestic use reaching a record 160.0 million hundredweight. Consequently, ending stocks are forecasted to grow by 11.5 percent to 45.5 million hundredweight.

Meanwhile, India's rice production is anticipated to achieve record levels of 135.5-138 million metric tons due to favorable La Niña conditions, boosting rainfall. This robust production is expected to pressure domestic and global rice prices and potentially lead to a relaxation of India's restrictive export policies. Despite these policies, India's parboiled rice remains competitively priced globally. The upcoming monsoon season is critical, as any dry weather could maintain current trade restrictions. India's agricultural sector, pivotal to its economy, benefits significantly from La Niña, which is expected to enhance the 2024 kharif crop, further influencing global rice market dynamics.

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