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In Q2 2024, native corn starch prices are forecasted to decline due to weakening corn prices in Brazil, influenced by reduced export demand and logistical challenges at northern ports caused by severe drought and low river levels. This trend is projected to continue into Q3 2024, with an additional decline in native corn starch prices, driven by rising freight costs as shipments are redirected to Santos, further decreasing Brazil's competitiveness, and leading to a 5% quarter-on-quarter drop in corn prices. However, an upward trend is anticipated in Q4 2024. This rebound is mainly due to growing demand for corn exports from countries like Mexico and Brazil's initiation of its first corn crop planting from September to December, which is expected to create supply limitations and assert a positive impact on corn and native corn price outlook. Overall, the market is expected to see fluctuations driven by both logistical challenges and shifting demand patterns.
Heavy rainfall in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil, disrupting the final stages of the harvest, particularly impacting corn production, has ripple effects on native corn starch supply chains. Despite reaching 83% in corn harvest progress, the persistent rains pose challenges for harvesting and may result in quality losses, constraining the availability of corn for starch production. Therefore, adverse weather conditions also affect overall agricultural output, potentially influencing corn prices. Meanwhile, in the United States, corn planting progress is behind the five-year average, attributed to wet conditions. This delay in planting may further impact the supply of corn and assert a significant impact on native corn starch production, adding pressure on the pricing outlook of native corn starch.
Brazil's corn production for 2023/2024 is projected at 125.86 million tons, significantly lower than last year's record of 140.5 million tons. This decline is attributed to climate issues linked to El Nino, adversely affecting the first season yield in southern Brazil and a reduced planting area for the second season. The total planting area is expected to be 20.9 million hectares, down 6.2% from 2022/2023. The average yield is forecasted at 6,020 kilograms per hectare, below the previous year's record. The first season production is revised down to 25.59 million tons, while the second season planting area is reduced to 14.62 million hectares, with yields expected to drop to 5,951 kilograms per hectare. Consequently, total second season production is predicted at 87 million tons, lower than previous forecasts. The significant reduction in Brazil's corn output could lead to tighter domestic supplies, driving up corn prices and impacting the cost of inputs for the native corn starch industry, which heavily relies on corn. This could result in higher production costs and potentially increased prices for corn starch products if elevated costs are passed on to consumers.
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United States (Head Office)
30 North Gould Street, Sheridan, WY 82801
+1-415-325-5166
Australia
63 Fiona Drive, Tamworth, NSW
+61-448-061-727
India
C130 Sector 2 Noida, Uttar Pradesh 201301
+91-858-608-1494
Philippines
40th Floor, PBCom Tower, 6795 Ayala Avenue Cor V.A Rufino St. Makati City, 1226.
+63-287-899-028, +63-967-048-3306
United Kingdom
6 Gardner Place, Becketts Close, Feltham TW14 0BX, Greater London
+44-753-713-2163
Vietnam
193/26/4 St.no.6, Ward Binh Hung Hoa, Binh Tan District, Ho Chi Minh City
+84-865-399-124
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