Mustard Seeds Price Forecast Report 2024-2025 | Price Trend, Latest Prices, Market Analysis, News, Chart, Demand, Extensive Forecast, Historical and Forecast Data

Mustard Seeds Price Forecast

In 2024, mustard seed prices are forecasted to experience a notable decline, with a double-digit percentage drop quarter-on-quarter anticipated due to a significant 63% surge in carryout stocks for the 2023-24 season. This oversupply is expected to keep prices low, particularly in Q3 2024, as the fresh harvest for the 2024-25 season commences. The Canadian production is projected to increase by approximately 5% for the new season, coupled with a 54% rise in carry-over stocks compared to the previous season. However, Q4 2024 might see a price increase driven by higher export volumes to key markets in the USA and Europe. Additionally, increased demand during the holiday season for food and beverages is expected to support this price outlook. Overall, while the first half of 2024 is likely to see suppressed prices due to oversupply, however, the latter part of the year may witness some price recovery driven by heightened export demand and seasonal consumption trends.

Market Dynamics

In the 2023-24 crop year, mustard crop acreage in India increased by 5% to over 100 lakh hectares, according to the Solvent Extractors' Association of India (SEA), increasing the stocks of mustard seeds and depreciating the pricing outlook of the commodity. This rise from the previous year's 95.76 lakh hectares is attributed to favorable conditions and higher sowing in key states like Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh, though some farmers in Gujarat and Rajasthan shifted to other crops due to lower profitability. Despite the bumper harvest, domestic prices have fallen below the minimum support price, directing a dim price forecast for the upcoming season. The drop in prices is also linked to increased imports of edible oils, driven by softened global prices and reduced import duties. Government interventions, such as MSP operations by April 1 and extended lower import duty structures until March 2025, however, aim to stabilize the market. The agriculture ministry's advance estimates project a record mustard seed production of 12.69 million tonnes, supported by suitable weather and a significant increase in sown area.

Annual Outlook for the Mustard Seeds Industry

The current dynamics of the market predict a challenging year ahead for yellow and oriental mustard and its related commodities prices in 2024. The analysts anticipate the pricing outlook to remain flat or potentially decline due to excessive supplies. The forecast mustard supplies of around 275,000 tonnes in 2024-25, the highest in a decade, resulting from a large carryout from the 2023-24 crop and weak export performance. Expected exports of 110,000 tonnes would mark the smallest program in at least a decade, driven by high Canadian prices that intimidate international buyers.

Increased competition has further escalated the current market issues as U.S. growers planted 240,000 acres of mustard in 2023, producing 65,000 tonnes, primarily yellow mustard, which is significantly higher than the previous year. The U.S. exports, particularly to Canada, are further expected to be rising, impacting Canadian market share. Additionally, Russia's increased mustard acreage and cheaper prices have further eroded Canada's market position in the E.U. To escalate the Canadian mustard market tensions, the market viewers expect a 17% decline in mustard acreage in Saskatchewan due to oversupply, with oriental and brown mustard seeing the largest reductions. Therefore, amid the tensions, the price forecast of mustard seeds looks uncertain and might largely depend upon the export-import policies. Consequently, the oversupply and shrinking demand from the U.S. and E.U. pose significant risks for mustard seed prices in 2024.

Gain a competitive edge with EMR's comprehensive price forecasting reports. Dive deep into the latest market dynamics and price outlook for your specific materials, ensuring you stay ahead of the curve with actionable insights and strategic foresight.

What Our Reports Include:

Historical Price Data and Analysis:

• In-depth review of prices (including feedstock) over the past 5 years.

• Visualizations and trend analysis to identify historical patterns and seasonality.

Supply and Demand Analysis:

• Detailed analysis of current supply and demand factors shaping the market, along with projections for how these dynamics are expected to evolve during the forecast period.

• Insights from our extensive supplier and trader network, government websites, industry bodies, and global trade data.

Latest Industry News:

• Up-to-date information on recent developments and geopolitical events.

• Analysis of how these events are likely to impact future prices.

Key Macroeconomic Indicators:

• Evaluation of economic indicators such as GDP growth, inflation rates, and PMI.

• Insights into how these indicators affect prices.

Price Outlook:

• Forecasted price trends for the next 2 years using statistical modelling and fundamental & technical analysis.

• Scenario analysis and potential price fluctuations.

Why Choose Our Reports?

Accurate Data: Our reports are based on reliable data sources including primary interviews, government websites, and industry bodies.

Comprehensive Insights: We offer a holistic view of the market, considering all factors related to demand, supply, macroeconomic environment, and input costs.

Timely Updates: Reports are updated monthly, with options for quarterly or semi-annual subscriptions.

Expert Support: Our team of analysts is available for consultations and customized requirements.

Key Benefits:

Informed Procurement Decisions: Gain insights on when to buy and how to negotiate better, mitigating the impact of price volatility.

Competitive Advantage: Leverage our robust and time-tested forecasting methodology to stay ahead in the market.

Actionable Insights: Make better market decisions with detailed forecasts and analysis.