Mustard Seeds Price Forecast Report 2024-2025 | Latest Prices, Outlook, Market Dynamics, Demand-Supply Analysis, Extensive Forecast, Detailed Insights, Historical and Forecast Data

Mustard Seeds Price Forecast

In 2024, mustard seed prices are forecasted to experience a notable decline, with a double-digit percentage drop quarter-on-quarter anticipated due to a significant 63% surge in carryout stocks for the 2023-24 season. This oversupply is expected to keep prices low, particularly in Q3 2024, as the fresh harvest for the 2024-25 season commences. The Canadian production is projected to increase by approximately 5% for the new season, coupled with a 54% rise in carry-over stocks compared to the previous season. However, Q4 2024 might see a price increase driven by higher export volumes to key markets in the USA and Europe. Additionally, increased demand during the holiday season for food and beverages is expected to support this price outlook. Overall, while the first half of 2024 is likely to see suppressed prices due to oversupply, however, the latter part of the year may witness some price recovery driven by heightened export demand and seasonal consumption trends.

Market Dynamics

In the 2023-24 crop year, mustard crop acreage in India increased by 5% to over 100 lakh hectares, according to the Solvent Extractors' Association of India (SEA), increasing the stocks of mustard seeds and depreciating the pricing outlook of the commodity. This rise from the previous year's 95.76 lakh hectares is attributed to favorable conditions and higher sowing in key states like Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh, though some farmers in Gujarat and Rajasthan shifted to other crops due to lower profitability. Despite the bumper harvest, domestic prices have fallen below the minimum support price, directing a dim price forecast for the upcoming season. The drop in prices is also linked to increased imports of edible oils, driven by softened global prices and reduced import duties. Government interventions, such as MSP operations by April 1 and extended lower import duty structures until March 2025, however, aim to stabilize the market. The agriculture ministry's advance estimates project a record mustard seed production of 12.69 million tonnes, supported by suitable weather and a significant increase in sown area.

Annual Outlook for the Mustard Seeds Industry

The current dynamics of the market predict a challenging year ahead for yellow and oriental mustard and its related commodities prices in 2024. The analysts anticipate the pricing outlook to remain flat or potentially decline due to excessive supplies. The forecast mustard supplies of around 275,000 tonnes in 2024-25, the highest in a decade, resulting from a large carryout from the 2023-24 crop and weak export performance. Expected exports of 110,000 tonnes would mark the smallest program in at least a decade, driven by high Canadian prices that intimidate international buyers.

Increased competition has further escalated the current market issues as U.S. growers planted 240,000 acres of mustard in 2023, producing 65,000 tonnes, primarily yellow mustard, which is significantly higher than the previous year. The U.S. exports, particularly to Canada, are further expected to be rising, impacting Canadian market share. Additionally, Russia's increased mustard acreage and cheaper prices have further eroded Canada's market position in the E.U. To escalate the Canadian mustard market tensions, the market viewers expect a 17% decline in mustard acreage in Saskatchewan due to oversupply, with oriental and brown mustard seeing the largest reductions. Therefore, amid the tensions, the price forecast of mustard seeds looks uncertain and might largely depend upon the export-import policies. Consequently, the oversupply and shrinking demand from the U.S. and E.U. pose significant risks for mustard seed prices in 2024.

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*While we strive to always give you current and accurate information, the numbers depicted on the website are indicative and may differ from the actual numbers in the main report. At Expert Market Research, we aim to bring you the latest insights and trends in the market. Using our analyses and forecasts, stakeholders can understand the market dynamics, navigate challenges, and capitalize on opportunities to make data-driven strategic decisions.