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Iron ore prices are forecasted to surpass the average expectations of traders and manufacturers in 2024 despite the real estate crisis in China dampening steel demand. A tense global market for iron ore due to short supply, particularly in maritime markets, with rising steel production outside of China, notably in India, is expected to drive consumption, estimated to further translate in the pricing forecast of MS Plate, too. Although iron ore prices fell by nearly a third in the first quarter of 2024, they partially rebounded in April as Chinese authorities sought to revive the national real estate market. The major iron ore producers are not expecting a significant increase in production, and stability in demand for this raw material is projected to outgrow the previous estimates, raising the production costs for MS Plates. However, concerns persist in Asian iron ore markets for the second quarter, with spot prices reaching an 11-month low in March and recovery contingent on construction activity in China and demand for stock replenishment amidst fears of continued price declines if steel prices remain stagnant.
In the fiscal year ending March 2024 (FY24), India transitioned into a net importer of finished steel products such as MS Plate, with imports rising by 38.2% year-on-year to 8.32 million tonnes, while exports grew by 11.5% to 7.487 million tonnes. Despite calls from Indian steel mills for government intervention against surging imports, no import duty was imposed due to higher-than-expected domestic demand. The domestic finished steel production increased by 12.7% year-on-year to 138.825 million tonnes, with major producers including SAIL, RINL, Tata Steel, AMNS, JSW, and JSPL contributing 77.345 million tonnes, accounting for 56% of total production. Imports, primarily from China, surged by 72.2% year-on-year. Meanwhile, Indian crude steel production rose by 13.2% to 144.04 million tonnes, with private sector entities contributing 83% of production. PSUs accounted for 17% of crude steel production, with a notable increase in production observed across the sector.
The Indian construction market is experiencing rapid growth, fuelled by extensive infrastructure projects and government investments. With demand for construction equipment growing by 17% in 2023, industry experts foresee significant expansion. The onset of initiatives like the Gati Shakti Programme aims to enhance infrastructure across 16 sectors, leveraging digital technologies for efficient execution. Additionally, projects such as Bharatmala and Sagarmala further drive momentum, aiming to strengthen connectivity and logistics efficiency. The sector is witnessing a surge in technology integration and sustainability, with a notable shift towards electric construction machines to mitigate environmental impact. This trend is expected to be reflected well in the pricing trajectory of processed steel products such as MS Plate in the near future. The surge in import volumes and expansion of domestic production rates further suggest favorable dynamics of the market.
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United States (Head Office)
30 North Gould Street, Sheridan, WY 82801
+1-415-325-5166
Australia
63 Fiona Drive, Tamworth, NSW
+61 448 06 17 27
India
C130 Sector 2 Noida, Uttar Pradesh 201301
+91-858-608-1494
Philippines
40th Floor, PBCom Tower, 6795 Ayala Avenue Cor V.A Rufino St. Makati City, 1226.
+63 287899028, +63 967 048 3306
United Kingdom
6 Gardner Place, Becketts Close, Feltham TW14 0BX, Greater London
+44-753-713-2163
Vietnam
193/26/4 St.no.6, Ward Binh Hung Hoa, Binh Tan District, Ho Chi Minh City
+84865399124
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