MS (Mild Steel) Channel Price Forecast Report 2024-2025 | Price Trend, Latest Prices, Market Analysis, News, Chart, Demand, Extensive Forecast, Historical and Forecast Data

MS (Mild Steel) Channel Price Forecast

MS Channel prices are likely to experience notable depreciation in the short term. The market is being driven by the availability and market positioning of its feedstock materials, iron ore, coking coal, and steel. Since all these commodities are witnessing a weak market run, they are pulling the upstream outlook for the MS channel down as well. Concurrently, the downstream demands are also not looking very supportive from the construction and manufacturing industries. Therefore, the forecasted prices are looking down for MS channels in the global markets.

Market Dynamics

The recent market outlook has been trading weak in the international markets for MS Channels. In Beijing, coking coal futures dropped over 3% to a month-low in May '24 due to anticipated increases in supply from Shanxi, China's major coal-producing region. This decline was driven by predictions of increased production later in the year despite a significant output drop earlier. Concurrently, iron ore prices also fell, influenced by lower steel prices due to reduced coal costs, affecting steel-related futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange. With a projected 1.7% drop in Chinese steel demand and stable output, Chinese exports are set to pressure global rebar prices further. Markets outside China, including Europe and Southeast Asia, are expected to remain well-supplied due to weak construction outlooks and increasing steel capacity, notably in India. Despite potential interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank, high costs and stringent sustainability requirements are dampening the European construction sector. Turkish steel mills, facing high interest rates and inflation, are operating at about 50% capacity, struggling with intense competition from Chinese and North African producers.

Annual Outlook for MS (Mild Steel) Channel Market

Domestic steel pricing outlook in India is expected to remain buoyant during the current fiscal year, bolstered by several key factors. Strong demand driven by pre-election spending, coupled with stable prices of coking coal and production adjustments in China amid a global economic slowdown, are pivotal in sustaining price levels. The domestic demand for steel looks stable, marking notable growth for the third consecutive year. This demand is further supported by an aggressive increase in infrastructure capital expenditure by the central government. However, the global sluggishness in the steel and construction sectors is reflected in the growing markets like India as well. Major producing countries like China are trying to balance the situation by curtailing their steel production to support domestic prices. In April 2024, global crude steel production fell by 5% year-over-year to 155.7 million tonnes, with China, the top producer, seeing a 7.2% decrease to 85.9 million tonnes. In contrast, India's production rose by 3.6% to 12.1 million tonnes. Despite these efforts, the downstream demands do not look very supportive of MS channel price forecasts in the current FY.

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Historical Price Data and Analysis:

• In-depth review of prices (including feedstock) over the past 5 years.

• Visualizations and trend analysis to identify historical patterns and seasonality.

Supply and Demand Analysis:

• Detailed analysis of current supply and demand factors shaping the market, along with projections for how these dynamics are expected to evolve during the forecast period.

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• Evaluation of economic indicators such as GDP growth, inflation rates, and PMI.

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• Forecasted price trends for the next 2 years using statistical modelling and fundamental & technical analysis.

• Scenario analysis and potential price fluctuations.

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