HRC Price Forecast Report 2024-2025 | Price Trend, Latest Prices, Market Analysis, News, Chart, Demand, Extensive Forecast, Historical and Forecast Data

HRC Price Forecast

In the majority of 2024, international steel prices, including those for hot-rolled coils (HRC), experienced a declining trend from their September 2021 peak. The analysts forecast prices to continue due to increasing capacity and weak demand. Chinese prices are expected to decline further due to weak demand and excess capacity. The World Steel Association forecasts a 1.9% increase in global steel demand in 2024, but the OECD reports significant capacity additions, outpacing demand growth and likely reducing capacity utilization. Consequently, steel prices are projected to fall throughout 2024, potentially reaching a low point by mid-2024 or 2025. Oxford Economics expects a 7% reduction in HRC prices in the E.U. and USA in 2024, with further declines of 2% in the E.U. and 11% in the USA in 2025. Therefore, in conclusion, global steel prices will remain subdued due to weak demand from manufacturing and construction, particularly in developed economies and China's property sector.

Market Dynamics

In May 2024, hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices declined across most major markets due to excess supply, weak demand, and economic uncertainty, reflecting a bleak price outlook for adjacent quarters, too. Although, in Western Europe, prices remained relatively stable, with minor decreases in the lower price limit, the Italian HRC prices fell by 1.6%. Amid uncertain market activities, European producers considered price hikes, but only Italian mills achieved modest increases. Additionally, demand remained weak, influenced by the early May holidays, leading to pressure on margins and reduced profits for producers. Amid these uncertainties, many buyers adopted a wait-and-see approach, contributing to inventory reduction. The North American HRC prices, on the other hand, dropped significantly due to low demand and economic uncertainty, compelling mills to cut prices. However, in China, HRC prices were stable in April and May despite efforts to stimulate the real estate sector. The end-user and export demand remained low, with most sales occurring between distributors. The global steel market faces continued challenges, with low demand expected to persist through the year.

Annual Outlook for HRC Industry

The World Steel Association forecasts global steel demand to rise by 1.7% to 1.793 billion metric tons in 2024 and continue increasing in 2025, suggesting a positive pricing outlook for HRC. India is projected to be the main driver of this growth as Chinese demand declines. After two years of decline and post-pandemic volatility, global steel demand is expected to stabilize, with a further increase of 1.2% to 1.815 billion tons in 2025. However, China's steel use fell by 3.3% in 2023 and is expected to remain steady in 2024, as reduced real estate investment is balanced by infrastructure and manufacturing growth. Although, Chinese demand is anticipated to decline by 1% in 2025, remaining below its 2020 peak.

India, on the other hand, has emerged as a key growth driver of the steel market, with steel demand projected to increase by 8% between 2024 and 2025. But the European demand, hindered by high inflation and tight monetary policies, is expected to grow modestly in 2024 before a significant 5.3% increase in 2025. In the U.S., strong investment activity is anticipated to revive steel demand this year after a 2023 slowdown due to a housing market decline. Overall, the global steel market shows signs of recovery and growth, driven by India's robust demand and supportive infrastructure investments in various regions.

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