Hot Rolled Coil (HRC) Price Trend and Forecast: Top 10 Leading Trading Countries and Regions - Latest Edition [2026]

The Expert Market Research pricing report on Hot Rolled Coil provides insights into the top 10 leading trading countries and regions.

Hot Rolled Coil prices have seen various fluctuations throughout 2024. The price of hot rolled coils, driven by factors such as raw material costs, production methods, and market demand, has a direct effect on the manufacturing costs of downstream products. With China responsible for the highest global hot rolled coil production, fluctuations in the availability and cost of raw materials like steel also influence the market price. In Q1 2025, global Hot Rolled Coil (HRC) prices showed a generally positive trend across key regions. Europe saw a price rebound despite weak demand, while APAC recorded steady gains in stainless steel coil pricing.

Globally, the prices of hot rolled coil have shown a consistent downward trend, with a notable 7-14% decrease observed in the last quarter of 2024 compared to the same period in 2023.  Inventory levels also had a certain impact on the market, as they declined along with production cuts, and exports remained weak due to high prices and expectations of anti-dumping duties in Vietnam, one of China’s key markets.

Hot Rolled Coil (HRC) Price Forecast

The graph illustrates the hot rolled coil price trends from October 2024 to June 2025 across various countries, including China, India, the USA, UAE, and Australia. The price lines show notable fluctuations, with prices slightly decreasing & increasing compared with different countries.

The price of hot rolled coils has been negatively impacted by weak consumption in key sectors, excess inventories, and increased competition from imported suppliers. Many service centers and re-rollers have been operating at minimal profitability or even incurring losses due to persistently low product prices. This oversupply and reduced demand have put downward pressure on hot rolled coil prices, further exacerbating the challenges faced by producers in maintaining price stability.

The prices of iron ore, coking coal, and other raw materials have seen fluctuations in recent months. These changes cascade through the supply chain, affecting the cost of hot-rolled steel products.

Global Trade and Supply Chain Implications

The global steel trade, especially in Hot Rolled Coil (HRC), has been shaped by shifting trade policies, tariffs, and geopolitical tensions. Trade measures like anti-dumping duties, such as those imposed by Malaysia, have changed the way steel moves across regions, forcing buyers to find new suppliers and adjust to different price levels. At the same time, ongoing conflicts and political uncertainty have affected the supply chains, leading to sudden price spikes and making it harder for manufacturers to plan.

Within this uncertain climate, HRC trade is highly correlated with policy actions and shifts in where and how steel is made. In the United States, Section 232 tariffs have restricted imports and driven prices upward, particularly in the Midwest, making it a high-cost area but also stimulating more local supply. At the same time, China increased HRC exports in 2024 because of softer domestic demand, which drove global prices lower. Looking ahead to 2025, expected production cuts in China to meet environmental goals might reduce exports and thereby ease the pressure on global markets. Generally, shifting trade regulations, environmental policies, and international tensions are likely to continue putting supply chains under strain.

Feedstock Analysis

Changes in the price of Hot Rolled Coil, often referred to as HRC, are directly impacted by fluctuating prices of coking coal, iron ore, and scrap steel. At the Dalian Commodity Exchange in China, iron ore futures fell by 0.7 per cent to 776 yuan per ton on March 5, 2025, due to rising U.S.-China trade tensions. Coking coal prices also declined due to reduced demand from the Chinese steel sector, which is facing production cuts for pollution control. Meanwhile, scrap steel prices fell mildly as demand was not that buoyant against a backdrop of increased supply of recycled scrap steel. HRC prices remain under incessant downward pressure owing to the declining production costs due to the falling raw material prices.

Nevertheless, uncertainty because of trade disputes, along with environmental policies from China, continues to keep markets volatile. Output restrictions on steel mills and consequent demand dynamics further control the price trend of HRC. Keeping a close watch on those trends is crucial when predicting the price shift in the steel industry.

Demand and Supply Outlook for Hot Rolled Coil (HRC)

The price outlook for hot rolled coils (HRC) appears positive due to several key factors. Increased government investments in infrastructure projects worldwide are expected to drive higher steel demand, presenting a growth opportunity for producers. Additionally, advancements in steel production technologies, such as automation and smart manufacturing, can help reduce production costs and improve efficiency, enhancing competitiveness in the market. Furthermore, the growing demand for eco-friendly building materials opens up opportunities for producers focused on low-carbon steel and recycling initiatives, allowing them to cater to environmentally conscious buyers and potentially command premium prices.

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What Our Reports Include:

Historical Price Data and Analysis:

• In-depth review of prices (including feedstock) over the past 5 years.
• Visualisations and trend analysis to identify historical patterns and seasonality.

Supply and Demand Analysis:

• Detailed industry analysis of current supply and demand trends, along with projections for how these dynamics are expected to evolve during the forecast period.
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• Forecasted price trend analysis for hot rolled coil for the next 2 years using statistical modelling and fundamental & technical price analysis.
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