HDPE Price Trend and Forecast: Top 10 Leading Trading Countries and Regions - Latest Edition [2026]

The Expert Market Research pricing report on HDPE provides insights into the top 10 leading trading countries and regions.

In the last quarter of 2024, HDPE prices decreased compared to the last quarter of 2023. Several factors led to this fall. High supply levels, low demand from key downstream sectors like packaging and construction, and competitive import prices from major markets have contributed. Moreover, changes in upstream crude oil and naphtha prices have contributed to affecting production costs, which resulted in influenced HDPE pricing. During Q1 2025, HDPE prices followed a mixed trend in the world—increasing in the first part of the quarter because of firm demand and supply disruptions, then declining in March as demand eased off and supply recovered. North America and South America experienced initial increases, whereas APAC, Europe, and MEA experienced overall decline.

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High-Density Polyethene (HDPE) prices have observed many fluctuations throughout 2024. Various factors, such as global supply and demand, local market conditions and economic factors, contributed to these changes. Different price trends were observed in major markets – North America, Asia-Pacific, and Europe, which reflected different cost structures and trade environments.

HDPE Price Forecast

HDPE Blow Molding prices show different patterns across regions in 2024. The Far East Asia (FEA) market sees prices increase reaching USD 955/MT in June 2024. This rise stems from steady crude oil prices and consistent demand from the packaging and car industries. The Northwest Europe (NWE) and US East Coast markets, however, display uneven trends. Supply chain issues, energy costs, and changes in local production affect these markets.

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Looking ahead, HDPE prices will likely experience downward pressure due to a surplus in supply, decreased purchasing activity in major markets, and uncertain global economic conditions. The Far East Asia region may see prices remain stable or dip slightly as new production capacities are introduced, leading to increased competition in the market. Europe and the US might see unpredictable prices due to changes in raw material costs, shipping problems, and new plastic use rules. Still, unexpected supply issues or higher crude oil prices could push prices up again. For the near future, prices look stable, with a possible dip before a slow recovery starts in mid-2025.

Global Trade and Supply Chain Implications

HDPE prices globally are dependent on the performance of global trade and supply chains. Lately, North America has upped its HDPE production, and this has pushed the exports to be more competitive. These exports are not only affecting prices in the U.S., but also in Asia and Europe, where domestic producers are being forced to adapt to compete. Meanwhile, shipping congestion and increasing freight rates have caused it to be more difficult for buyers to receive HDPE on time, and prices have become different across regions.

Another key driver of the HDPE market is the increasing emphasis on sustainability. Governments and businesses, particularly in Europe, are being forced to minimise plastic waste and encourage recycling. This has boosted demand for recycled HDPE (rHDPE), especially the high-quality grades for packaging. Due to this, premium rHDPE will continue to be in high demand until 2025, with customers willing to pay a premium for sustainable and environmentally friendly products.

Feedstock Analysis

In mid-2024, ethylene prices experienced notable fluctuations, driven by regional supply-demand dynamics and feedstock cost variations. In the United States, prices remained stable in early July but surged by 6.3% by mid-month due to unexpected maintenance shutdowns and operational disruptions at key production facilities, which tightened supply. Additionally, volatility in feedstock prices, including crude oil and naphtha, further impacted ethylene availability and pricing.

Despite rising crude oil prices, HDPE prices in Europe and the Asia-Pacific region either declined or remained stable, primarily due to limited demand from the plastics and packaging sectors. Overall, the ethylene and HDPE markets in 2024 were shaped by a complex interplay of supply constraints, feedstock cost fluctuations, and regional demand variations, all of which collectively influenced pricing trends and market dynamics across different regions.

Demand and Supply Outlook for HDPE

HDPE prices will stay low in the first half of 2025 due to too much supply in key production areas, slow demand growth, and unpredictable oil prices. Slower global economic growth and reduced use in major sectors like packaging, buildings, and cars will keep prices down. The strong demand forecast for HDPE suggests that potential supply disruptions due to political tensions, rising shipping costs, and production cuts in certain regions could lead to price increases shortly. New rules and sustainability efforts around plastic use in some countries might also change demand patterns. While prices may fluctuate in the short term, stabilisation is anticipated by mid-2025 as market fundamentals rebalance. Econometric market analysis also suggests that continued volatility in upstream raw materials and policy variables will remain key influencers of HDPE pricing through 2025.

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• In-depth review of prices (including feedstock) over the past 5 years.
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