Glycerine Price Forecast Report 2024-2025 | Price Trend, Latest Prices, Market Analysis, News, Chart, Demand, Extensive Forecast, Historical and Forecast Data

Glycerine Price Forecast

The current market dynamics suggest that the price forecast for glycerine for 2024 looks uncertain. In the European countries, Q3 prices are expected to stabilize as rapeseed oil costs are estimated to decline, while the strong demand from the chemicals and pharmaceuticals sectors might keep the supply chains tight. However, the supply chains are expected to ease out in the next quarter, driven by new rapeseed crop availability, easing the production costs. Similarly, in India, due to higher palm oil costs, the third quarter of 2024 might witness a slight surge in glycerine prices. However, the sluggish demand from the downstream industries and adequate availability of raw materials in the adjacent quarters are expected to depreciate the pricing outlook for glycerine.

Market Dynamics

The Indian domestic oleochemical industries, such as refined glycerine, are experiencing severe threat because of low to negligible import duties on South Asian imports; the Solvent Extractors Association of India (SEA) has urged the government to impose import curbs or duties on finished products, particularly refined glycerine, to protect the domestic industry. The SEA highlighted the severe threat faced by the domestic oleochemical industry due to large-scale imports of refined glycerine and other products at zero duty. SEA recommended placing refined glycerine under the restricted items list or imposing an import duty with an additional 25% tariff on raw materials like refined palm stearin. Additionally, the industry body requested duty-free imports of raw materials for oleochemical players with processing plants to further support the domestic sector.

Annual Outlook for the Glycerine Industry

The USDA’s forecast for the 2024/25 crop year predicts a record global production of vegetable oil, with an approximate surge of 4.5 million tonnes as compared to last year. Soybean and palm oil, the primary feedstock of glycerine, are expected to surge specifically. Palm oil, with Indonesia being its top producer, is projected to achieve 80 million tonnes in production, while soybean oil is expected to hit new highs with 65.4 million tonnes, led by China and USA. Meanwhile, rapeseed oil production is anticipated to reach 34 million tonnes, slightly lower than the previous year. However, the carryover stocks are expected to be sufficient to smoothen the ties of supply chains. Additionally, the current proposal of imposition of import duties by India on Southeast Asian oleochemicals, such as refined glycerine, will also play a significant role in dictating the pricing trajectory of glycerine throughout the year 2024.

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