Durum Wheat Price Forecast Report 2024-2025 | Price Trend, Latest Prices, Market Analysis, News, Chart, Demand, Extensive Forecast, Historical and Forecast Data

Durum Wheat Price Forecast

In the second quarter of 2024, U.S. durum wheat prices are forecasted to continue on their southward journey triggered by the stable global supply of the commodity and favorable weather conditions. Additionally, the alternations in the market activities caused by the entry of Russian wheat, that too at the cheapest cost, have further raised the concerns of global durum wheat traders. The trend is expected to sustain even in the third quarter of the year, facilitated by the subsequent decline in fertilizer prices. Therefore, in conclusion, the market viewers anticipate that 2024 might be a difficult year as the pricing outlook seems meek.

Market Dynamics

Canada faces increasing competition in the durum market for 2024-25 as Russia plans to double its planting to 2.47 million acres, potentially producing over two million tonnes and exporting up to 1.7 million tonnes, though some experts predict closer to one million. Russia's new regulation reducing soft wheat use in pasta could boost domestic durum consumption. Additionally, the EU's proposed tariffs on Russian cereals aim to curb destabilization and Russia's misuse of food exports amid its conflict with Ukraine, possibly reducing Russian competition in markets like Italy. However, Canada's competition from Turkey remains strong, as Turkey, leveraging a policy allowing up to 100% common wheat in exported pasta, continues to export significant durum quantities. This evolving dynamic of the durum wheat market indicates significant market conditions during the upcoming months.

Annual Outlook for the Durum Wheat Industry

In 2024, Italy's durum wheat production is projected to be around 3.5 million tons, a decrease of 10-15% from the long-term average and an 8% annual drop. This decline is attributed to adverse climatic conditions, reduced cultivated acreage, and geopolitical tensions, particularly impacting southern regions like Sicily, Apulia, and Basilicata. However, internationally, analysts predict a 10% increase in global durum wheat production in 2024, driven by significant output increases in Canada (+40%), the United States (+25%), Russia (+20%), and Turkey (+5%). This rise is expected to boost global durum wheat stocks by 8-10%, though final stocks might remain below long-term averages, giving the required momentum to the pricing outlook of the commodity. Consequently, while prices are expected to stay below recent peaks, they will still be historically elevated. This overall market dynamic reflects the balance between regional production challenges in Italy and increased global output, which is set to stabilize prices at a relatively high level compared to historical norms.

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