CRC Price Forecast Report 2024-2025 | Price Trend, Latest Prices, Market Analysis, News, Chart, Demand, Extensive Forecast, Historical and Forecast Data

CRC Price Forecast

The average steel price is projected to decrease in 2024 as the current global outlook does not look in favor of the market, which is expected to reflect in the CRC price trend as well. The CRC prices are also sensitive to China's economic stimulus announcements. Although the global economic outlook is bleak, with manufacturing hindering growth in developed markets, China's export growth and automotive sector, alongside India's strong demand, will somehow support steel prices. However, the Chinese property sector faces challenges, with a 9.6% decline in real estate investment year-on-year in 2023, but automotive production is expected to grow by 2.8% in 2024. Additionally, the conflict in Ukraine will strain the EU's economic outlook and steel demand, while high interest rates and material costs pressure US demand.

Market Dynamics

The European market for cold-rolled coil (CRC) is facing significant downward pressure due to slow end-user demand and cheaper imports. Key downstream sectors like automotive and construction are showing weak demand, with the automotive sector expected to consume 20-30% less steel in 2024. Given the current market dynamics, European producers are reluctant to raise their offers as they struggle to compete with Asian imports, which are significantly cheaper. In contrast, Chinese CRC prices stabilized in April a little after sliding on the lower side of the spectrum during the majority of the first quarter. Due to high stocks and weak demand post-Chinese New Year, prices attained a declining stance, but the price turning point was noted during the middle of March, driven by a rebound in futures prices. Improved demand in the automobile and home appliance sectors, along with a government equipment renewal plan, is further expected to boost CRC consumption. Additionally, a reduction in CRC inventories suggests better market conditions ahead, providing a positive outlook for CRC prices in China.

Annual Outlook for CRC Industry

The World Steel Association's Short Range Outlook forecasts a 1.7% rebound in global steel demand in 2024, reaching 1,793 MT, and a further 1.2% growth in 2025 to 1,815 MT. After two years of negative growth and market volatility since the COVID-19 pandemic, global steel demand is expected to stabilize despite ongoing challenges such as high inflation, geopolitical uncertainties, and tight monetary policies, fuelling the outlook for cold rolled coil. However, given the current dynamics, China's steel demand is projected to remain flat in 2024 and decline by 1% in 2025 due to decreasing real estate investments, offset by infrastructure and manufacturing growth. Conversely, India is anticipated to lead demand growth with an 8% increase driven by infrastructure investments. Emerging regions like MENA and ASEAN will see accelerated demand, while developed regions are expected to recover modestly, with the EU showing significant growth in 2025 after a major drop in 2023. Additionally, the US steel demand also looks promising, supported by investment activity and housing recovery. The residential construction downturn and high construction costs could have dragged down steel demand, but strong investments in public infrastructure and manufacturing facilities, especially related to green transition projects, are providing support. However, risks include persistent inflation, geopolitical tensions, and high public debt, which could impact the economic recovery.

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