Copper Price Trend and Forecast: Top 10 Leading Trading Countries and Regions - Latest Edition [2026]

The EMR pricing report on copper provides insights into the top 10 leading trading countries and regions.

Copper prices have seen a steady increase, having a record rise of 20% by October compared to the same period last year. Further, delays in the commissioning of new mining projects, coupled with a stringent environmental policy, seem to constrain the already reduced supply in the world, thus putting upward pressure on prices. It is predicted that as these long-term shortages persist and consumption trends increase, copper prices will rise steadily for the rest of 2025. In Q1 2025, the global copper plate market saw upward price trends driven by supply constraints, speculative buying, and strong demand from key sectors like electric vehicles and construction.

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On the demand side, copper is being utilized for electric vehicles, renewable energy systems, and power grid expansion, which leads to increased pressure in the markets. The transition toward electrification and decarbonization continues to drive industrial demand above supply growth.

Copper Price Forecast

Three-month copper prices on the London Metal Exchange are expected to be on an upward trend in 2025. For February 2025, we see copper priced in a confined range, reflecting market volatility while influenced by supply-demand dynamics, macroeconomic fundamentals, and geopolitical aspects.

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Several factors are guiding this price movement. On the supply side, mining firms are experiencing a decline in profits. However, steel and copper demand are expected to recover if China's economy bounces back. Contributing to such price volatility is geopolitical uncertainty, including fear over U.S. import duties on copper. This has subsequently led to significant price discrepancies between U.S. and overseas copper futures, raising alarm bells over trade disruptions and increased costs. Given these constraints of supply, the upward trend in copper price is expected to be sustained during 2025.

Global Trade and Supply Chain Implications

Broader macroeconomic factors affecting copper price forecast include geopolitical issues, trade policy fluctuations, and ever-increasing production costs that will continue to add stress and strain to an already challenged supply chain. Currently, the margins for copper smelting in China have come down to their lowest point so far, with the smelters plunged into deep financial distress as almost all input prices have voyaged north while the refining fees have dipped. The lucrative growth areas of large AI-enabled data centres, electric vehicles, and renewable energy have increased demand and strained the supply chain.

These supply constraints are largely arising due to falling ore grades in the major mining countries Chile and Peru, global shipping disruptions due to geopolitical tensions, and the increasing power of China in importing refined copper from the Democratic Republic of Congo. On the other hand, the USA is planning to introduce trade tariffs, which would bring about another challenge. High energy prices would tend to have some negative repercussions on mining capability along with higher costs of production, putting more pressure on copper prices.

Feedstock analysis

Volatility in raw material prices like copper ore, concentrates, and scrap copper has a critical influence on copper production costs and supply chain movements. For example, the price of copper will average approximately USD11,000 per metric ton in 2026 based on an expanding global deficit of refined copper that is projected to be 160,000 metric tons. 

This will raise production costs, destabilize supply chains, and pressure industries that rely on copper, including electronics, building, and the manufacture of electric vehicles. Increased raw material prices could result in higher consumer prices, greater investment in copper recycling, and substitution toward materials like aluminum. Also, the U.S. manufacturing sector is expected to experience substantial cost pressures because of possible tariffs on copper imports, which could have a negative effect on industrial production and lower copper consumption. These cost shifts have a direct impact on production plans, as producers modify refining processes, obtain substitute feedstock, or transmit higher costs downstream.

Demand and Supply Outlook for Copper

The copper market outlook in 2025 faces a complicated landscape driven by geopolitical tensions, supply chain disruptions, and demand shift patterns. There are concerns on the trade side that new U.S. tariffs on copper imports may aggravate these dynamics.

On the side of supply, labor strikes and logistic snarls in pertinent mining plains are impairing production. Econometric market analysis also suggests that, mining companies have heightened their interest in sustainability and renewable energy projects, which has a further chance of constraining supply. Although the headwinds remain, demand continues to rise, especially from renewable energy, electric vehicles, and infrastructure development. The competition of substantial demand versus entrenched supply constraints could keep the price propelling upward.

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