Copper Price Forecast Report 2024-2025 | Price Trend, Latest Prices, Market Analysis, News, Chart, Demand, Extensive Forecast, Historical and Forecast Data

Copper Price Forecast

The copper market is poised to enter a structural deficit phase in 2024, driven by the recent closure of a significant mine in Panama and limited investment in new mining ventures. Projections indicate a substantial decline in copper stocks by 35% in 2024 and 18% in 2025. The anticipated commencement of interest rate reductions by the US Federal Reserve starting July 2024 is expected to stimulate business and consumer spending, along with increased investment in commodity markets, including copper.

Market Dynamics

Recently, the copper markets have been seeing an unforeseen shortage in base metal supplies fueled by the Chinese government's announcement of a significant bond issue aimed at stimulating the economy. This has raised expectations of increased demand for industrial metals, including copper, particularly in sectors such as electric vehicles and renewable energy. However, concerns arise regarding the ability of global mines to meet this rising demand. Reports suggest that copper supplies may soon start declining, with forecasts of a widening deficit in refined copper for 2024.

Resurging manufacturing activity in key consumer markets like the US and China has also supported copper prices, indicating a revival in demand for industrial commodities. Additionally, the banning of Russian base metals in US and UK futures platforms has added concerns over supply threats. Since around 50% of LME stocks are of Russian origin and 17% of LME stocks are of Chinese origin, rising geopolitical tensions amongst all these regions are also interrupting the market dynamics in an unforeseen manner.

Annual Outlook for Copper Industry

The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) has revised its forecast supply surplus for this year downward due to significantly lower-than-expected mine production, indicating a closer balance between production and demand in the global copper market. The refined copper surplus is also now projected to be smaller than previously anticipated. Delays in new projects, company guidance revisions, and unexpected mine closures have contributed to a decrease in mine supply growth, impacting both the raw materials supply chain and refined metal output.

This has led to a surge in spot copper concentrates market activity and subsequent reductions in spot treatment charges. While Chinese smelters' production curtailment agreement triggered a rally in copper prices, the ICSG has lowered its refined metal supply growth forecasts for this year and the next. Despite a bullish long-term outlook for copper, challenges such as the Chinese property market crisis and moderate global growth forecasts may impact the metal's short-term prospects. However, the group remains cautious about copper demand, with a divergence in performance expected between China and the rest of the world.

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