Bitumen Price Forecast Report 2024-2025 | Latest Prices, Outlook, Market Dynamics, Demand-Supply Analysis, Extensive Forecast, Detailed Insights, Historical and Forecast Data

Bitumen Price Forecast

Looking ahead to 2024, the fourth year of China’s 14th Five-Year Plan is expected to see accelerated completion of highway construction projects and the launch of delayed projects. Fiscal policies are likely to strengthen, promoting economic stability through infrastructure construction, and prompting stabilization of the bitumen industries. In the derivatives market, asphalt production capacity utilization in China ranged between 30% and 50% in 2023, with significant additions and eliminations in production capacity. The asphalt supply is projected to remain high in 2024, with lower expected average crude oil prices benefiting refinery efficiency and infrastructure demand boosting asphalt needs.

On the demand side, significant investments in highway transportation in major provinces have driven bitumen demand, which is expected to continue in 2024. Import and export trends show a slight increase in imports and a modest rise in exports in 2023, with a projected increase in imports not expected to significantly impact overall supply. Overall, the bitumen market is anticipated to exhibit a rebound and fluctuating trend in 2024, with supply and demand influenced by raw material availability and seasonal demand variations, particularly in regions with major infrastructure projects.

Market Dynamics

The Chinese asphalt market is experiencing a decline in operating rates and a slight improvement in demand, yet refineries are unable to reduce their inventory levels, indicating that demand remains insufficient. The asphalt production rates of major refineries, particularly PetroChina, continue to rise, although local refinery rates have only slightly decreased. The profits for Shandong refineries in processing standard products are positive but processing diluted asphalt results in significant losses.

Meanwhile, in the Indian market, in the last fiscal year, bitumen consumption reached a decade high, driven by a surge in road construction ahead of the general election, with sales rising 10% to 8.8 million metric tonnes, as per the oil ministry. This increase aligns with the overall trend of growing road construction activity, with the average annual consumption over the past five financial years being 7.7 MMT, a significant rise from the 5.94 MMT average between 2014-15 and 2018-19. The stats verify that bitumen remains the preferred material for road construction, although the use of cement for concrete roads is on the rise. This heightened demand defines the critical role of bitumen in supporting India's infrastructure development, particularly in the context of pre-election infrastructure initiatives.

Annual Outlook for Bitumen Industry

China's bitumen market is projected to see a rise in supply in 2024, driven by increased end-user demand, despite a forecasted decline in imports due to elevated prices of imported bitumen. The domestic downstream consumption of bitumen is expected to reach approximately 34.55 million tonnes, with higher consumption anticipated primarily in the second half of the year following the rainy season. Consumption levels will vary, peaking in September and hitting a low in February, corresponding with peak and slack demand seasons. Domestic production is forecasted to reach 32.90 million tonnes in 2024.

Production volumes will initially be low in the first and second quarters due to reduced refinery production enthusiasm but are expected to surge in the third quarter, driven by strong end-user demand, before potentially decreasing in the fourth quarter due to weaker demand and adverse weather conditions. Importantly, while China's bitumen supply recovers, foreign refineries are expected to reduce their bitumen supply because of low processing profits and the high exchange rate, leading to higher prices for imported bitumen. This price disparity is anticipated to limit bitumen imports, with a potential decline to 2.70 million tonnes in 2024.

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*While we strive to always give you current and accurate information, the numbers depicted on the website are indicative and may differ from the actual numbers in the main report. At Expert Market Research, we aim to bring you the latest insights and trends in the market. Using our analyses and forecasts, stakeholders can understand the market dynamics, navigate challenges, and capitalize on opportunities to make data-driven strategic decisions.