Anthracite Coal Price Forecast Report 2024-2025 | Price Trend, Latest Prices, Market Analysis, News, Chart, Demand, Extensive Forecast, Historical and Forecast Data

Anthracite Coal Price Forecast

In 2024, anthracite coal pricing outlook in the Middle East countries is expected to improve based on the surge in the market momentum of a number of primary market drivers. Additionally, recent clashes in the Red Sea have redirected the demand for South African anthracite towards the Middle East. The currency crisis in Egypt has also led to significant economic disruptions, including emergency measures such as interest rate hikes and the floating of the pound, affecting all exports, including coal. Furthermore, planned maintenance closures of the Central Queensland Coal Network's coal system in May are expected to escalate the supply concerns through imports. These factors thus collectively suggest an upward trend in anthracite coal prices in the region due to increased demand and constrained supply.

Market Dynamics

In 2024, the global coal market is experiencing significant shifts influenced by production and demand dynamics in major coal-producing countries. In India, coal dispatches in April 2024 reached 85.10 million tonnes (MT), a 6.07% increase from the previous year's 80.23 MT. The Coal India Limited played a crucial role, dispatching 64.26 MT, up 3.18% from 62.28 MT in April 2023. Additionally, coal dispatches by others saw a substantial rise of 26.90%,reaching 15.16 MT compared to 11.95 MT last year. This growth reflects an uptick in coal production and dispatches driven by increased domestic demand. On the other hand, Indonesia's National Mining Industry Association has indicated potential shortfalls in meeting this year's coal output target due to an ongoing global market oversupply. In the first quarter of 2024, Indonesia produced 138 million tonnes of coal, about 24% lower than the 183 million tonnes produced in the same period last year. The decline is attributed to lower export demand and decreased coal prices. Total domestic coal production has reached 297.46 million tonnes, 32% of the annual target of 922.14 million tonnes.

Annual Outlook for Anthracite Coal Industry

The COP28 climate summit concluded with a historic agreement to transition away from fossil fuels, highlighting the challenge of reducing coal consumption. Energy research firms forecast that 2024 may be the year global coal consumption peaks before entering a long-term decline, reflecting a positive outlook for anthracite coal as well. This projection hinges on a potential rebound in China's economy, which could temporarily increase coal usage. Despite previous conflicting predictions, coal remains a vital and cost-effective energy source in Asia, where large-scale solar and battery storage are still more than a decade away from becoming the cheapest options. While coal consumption is declining in North America and Europe, with significant reductions in Canada, particularly Alberta, new coal power plants in China and Southeast Asia offset these decreases. These new plants are more efficient and often serve as backups for renewable energy sources.

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