Ammonia Price Forecast Report 2024-2025 | Price Trend, Latest Prices, Market Analysis, News, Chart, Demand, Extensive Forecast, Historical and Forecast Data

Ammonia Price Forecast

The global ammonia market faced further downward price adjustments in early 2024, continuing the trend from late 2023. Falling natural gas prices in Europe reduced production costs, exerting downward pressure on ammonia prices. However, geopolitical tensions disrupting Middle Eastern shipments prompted buyers to turn to the spot market, potentially impacting global supply dynamics, despite stagnant European imports due to producers' hesitation to ramp up local output and potential price increases in the short term.

Market Dynamics

In China, the ammonia market is prone to the surging challenges as recent high prices have led to increased downstream resistance and limited demand support. With overhauled production equipment expected to come back online by the end of the May, market supply is anticipated to rise, further weakening the supply sector of the market. This has led to a softer trading atmosphere, particularly in northern regions of the country where high-priced shipments are pressured. In Shandong, liquid ammonia prices are down amid weaker trading and increased exports. Similarly, Shanxi's market has seen a partial price decline due to increased local supply and expected reduced external demand.

Overall, the ammonia market is in a deadlock, with expectations for continued weakness in the short term. Close attention is needed to regional supply-demand fluctuations and external market conditions as the market is likely to remain under pressure throughout 2024, with potential further price declines if supply continues to outpace demand.

Annual Outlook for Ammonia Industry

The ammonia market is poised for significant expansion due to its evolving role as a clean energy solution and hydrogen carrier. With natural gas prices projected to remain elevated in Europe, the industry is pressured to innovate and adapt amidst stringent decarbonization policies that erode competitiveness. The US, with its favorable energy costs, advanced carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies, and attractive incentives under the Inflation Reduction Act, emerges as a viable relocation destination for ammonia production. This relocation is driven by the need to produce low-carbon ammonia, critical for reducing CO2 emissions associated with traditional grey hydrogen production.

As ammonia's use extends beyond fertilizers to serve as maritime fuel and a hydrogen transport medium, the market could triple in the coming decades. The decoupling of integrated production processes and shifting emission-intensive operations to regions with cheaper natural gas and supportive policies could enhance competitiveness. The EU's ambitious targets under the Renewable Energy Directive III, the phasing out of free emissions allowances, and the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) further compel the industry to pivot towards sustainable practices.

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Historical Price Data and Analysis:

• In-depth review of prices (including feedstock) over the past 5 years.

• Visualizations and trend analysis to identify historical patterns and seasonality.

Supply and Demand Analysis:

• Detailed analysis of current supply and demand factors shaping the market, along with projections for how these dynamics are expected to evolve during the forecast period.

• Insights from our extensive supplier and trader network, government websites, industry bodies, and global trade data.

Latest Industry News:

• Up-to-date information on recent developments and geopolitical events.

• Analysis of how these events are likely to impact future prices.

Key Macroeconomic Indicators:

• Evaluation of economic indicators such as GDP growth, inflation rates, and PMI.

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Price Outlook:

• Forecasted price trends for the next 2 years using statistical modelling and fundamental & technical analysis.

• Scenario analysis and potential price fluctuations.

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